Once again, Bitcoin looks gray. So much so that cryptocurrency investors are starting to crack one after another. But the most worrying thing is that the margin still available on the downside still exists. Indeed, the bear market set in motion since its last ATH in November 2021 is not even at its terminal stage. To be more precise, it is in the middle of the panic phase, not in the capitulation phase.
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Unsurprisingly, the latest technical analyzes have followed and resembled each other since the final breakout of its tidy or horizontal channel (orange rectangle). And BTC prices would seem to be heading towards a very critical support for buyers. Especially since it is an easy number to remember for all players in the cryptocurrency industry.
Bitcoin – Another week to forget
Despite a parenthesis during the week of May 30, Bitcoin remains on 11 weeks of decline over the past 12. Something that had never happened before in his lifetime. And to drive the point home, its prices are getting dangerously close to the $20,000 support, after the breakout of $26,000. So now the games are open to see if the sellers want to launch a new attack.
Just to encourage them unfavorable technical signals allow them to take advantage of a comfortable position. First, Weinstein’s Phase 4 continues with the 30-week moving average (weekly 30MM) sliding below the shoulder-head-shoulder (ETE) neckline. Second, the descending line takes on more weight as the support breakouts follow one another. And third, this week’s bearish candle would tend to see even more red thereafter.
Assuming the threat below $20,000 becomes serious, BTC prices would fall sharply towards the much more critical $12,000 support. Because, if we zoom out the weekly chart, this is the trigger level for its last bullrun. But, otherwise, if the $20,000 is defended tooth and nail by the buyers, a technical rebound could be initiated towards the close resistances which remain far from the points of trend reversals.
Bitcoin – A palpable tension around $20,000
If there is one question on everyone’s lips about Bitcoin, it’s whether or not it’s going to hold the $20,000 support. Especially considering that in weekly units the downside pressure is gaining momentum. But what about in daily units? After the bearish candle on Monday June 13, prices appear to be stabilizing slightly above $20,000. Instinctively, we have the impression that the sellers prefer to calm things down. Because, from $35,000 to $20,000, their percentage of capital gains could encourage them to take profits.
Besides, technical indicators are showing some signs of excess on the downside. And more particularly an RSI that collapses below the oversold zone. But unfortunately, the theory of technical analysis does not 100% happen in practice. And, in a bear market, sometimes large corrections are triggered with oversold technical indicators.
Thereby, the consolation prize would be a technical rebound in BTC prices, following a return of the RSI beyond the oversold zone. But for that, an easing of the current uncertainties on the financial markets becomes imperatively necessary. And this on the sine qua non condition that the catalysts are sufficient for the sellers to let go of the ballast.
BTC – Be careful not to draw too hasty parallels with previous bear markets
Given the current circumstances around Bitcoin prices, it would be wise to forget about the favorable trend reversal scenario until further notice. History not to give false hopes to new entrants. On the one hand, no sign of price stability in the medium to long term can be observed. And on the other hand, the market context does not lend itself to taking initiatives. Especially since central banks are seeking by all means to counter galloping inflation.
Unlike previous Bitcoin bear markets, the one we are currently going through takes place in the presence of institutional investors. E the latter have a heavier strike force than retail investors in terms of the use of leverage. Therefore one should not be surprised to see Bitcoin prices losing ground below $20,000.
Because the fact that BTC prices are now below the Realized Price (average base price at which all bitcoins were bought) according to the Look Into Bitcoin site, could increase the selling pressure on investors. And why not begin the final capitulation towards $12,000.
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