Dear readers, hello! Here Romain, for a technical review around the evolution of Bitcoin prices and its current situation. This analysis is offered to you in collaboration with Le Trading du Coin and its algorithmic trading solution.
Busy start to the week for all crypto and equity markets. The news around inflation and the rise in interest rates remain at the origin of the main movements currently recorded. Even if the latest inflation figures in the United States are (a little) lower than expected, at 6.3%. While in France, it reached the 1985 record, at 5.2%.
Finally, in Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected at the turn for its plan and an increase in key rates.
Now let’s dive into the technical analysis of Bitcoin!
Monthly chart – The edge of the abyss remains close!
To start the month of June, it is good to reflect on the close of the May monthly candle and the technical situation of Bitcoin, from a long-term perspective.
With the breakout of the monthly Kijun, the Bitcoin price sends a relatively negative signal. But you still have to wait for confirmation with the next candle to get validation. Namely the end of this month of June.
However, if we look at the consequences of such a breakout, this opens the door for a retracement. With the former high of 2018 at $20,000 as first support. Just that !
But nothing is written in advance. And this scenario will only be considered if, and only if, the macroeconomic situation tends to deterioratewith bad news that is not assimilated by the equity markets.
Rest assured though, because from a medium-term point of view, relatively solid arguments suggest that prices may find support. But let’s take a closer look.
Weekly Chart – The wait is getting long
In weekly time units, Bitcoin prices found rest on the former low at $29,000. A level of support that remains the main signal of a further fall in prices, in the event of a clear break.
But taking a look with a Fibonacci retracement, it’s interesting to see another key support, lower down, at $25,200. This will be a target to watch in case of a break down. And in the case of a return to the upside, prices will have to assert themselves by breaking the short-term resistance located at $32,000. An objective discussed below in this analysis.
This weekly chart indicates that we are in a waiting situatione, with prices finding support after a strong bearish momentum. In other words, profit taking from bearish speculators who unwind positions on a key objective.
In order to give a first rebound signal, the breakout of the weekly Tenkan remains necessary to get the weekly Kijun in a second time.
Daily Chart – Unsuccessful attempts…
With a daily chart, we can clearly observe this floating moment that has been going on for three weeks now. And after some signs of a rebound, and notably a higher low point, it is worth noting that the daily Kijun was broken by prices.
This first signal could be the sign of a rebound. First with a test of resistance located at $32,000 (last week’s high) and higher momentum in the form of a test of the key $33,000 level. That provided that the volumes, which remain stable, increase and show a real willingness of buyers to bring the market to the top!
In the event of a break in this level, the opportunity to break out of a bearish to neutral situation will be higher. And entering the daily cloud will be a real opportunity to finally send a positive wave in this bear market.
Bitcoin – A little tour on the Dominance of BTC
Bitcoin dominance is regaining some neutrality, with prices entering the weekly cloud. A medium-term situation that reflects the decline of altcoins against bitcoinwhich is done more violently than for digital gold.
To compare, the dominance of Bitcoin had returned to the 70% zone in 2018. And that had marked the low point of the big crypto market correction. A level that still represents long-term resistance, possible to reach if prices break out of the weekly cloud.
From an Ichimoku point of view, the bullish inertia given by prices over the short and medium term is strong. The weekly and daily Tenkans accompany and serve as support in this rise. Which allows Dominance to find key resistancesbetween 47 and 49%.
In the event of a breakout, the opportunity to return to test the weekly SSB flat and a former price low remains strong, target located at 53%.
Bitcoin – And the general marketcap in all this?
Short-term capitalization is marking time and remains, too, in the most total indecision.
A range is clearly identifiable. And it is necessary to wait for an exit, by the top or by the bottom of this zone, to know the continuation of the festivities. Knowing that an exit from the top would revive the crypto market. While from below, it would mean a flight of liquidity either in the form of cash, or on safer values while waiting for the storm to pass…
It seems necessary to note that the daily Kijun is currently blocking prices. And from an Ichimoku point of view, the capitalization is bearish.
You would have understood it, we are condemned to wait for a significant movement in order to know more precisely in which direction the market is likely to go. But let’s see the positive side, it leaves time to rest and, why not, let go of the screens for an afternoon!
Thank you for your attention to this technical article, and see you next week for another update!
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