(BFM Bourse) – With the help of a few managers, the BFM Bourse has selected securities that could replicate Santa’s performance if the famous bearded man were a conglomerate.
Christmas literally arrives on Sunday, accompanied by the famous Santa Claus, a timeless icon who should bring many gifts to (big) good children.
For the markets, the central banks have to some extent played spoilsport with their restrictive communication. To a weakening of the famous “Santa Claus Rally”, as tradition believes that the month of December is beneficial for the stock markets.
What if Santa Claus was a multinational? In which companies should we invest to approach the “performance” of this giant conglomerate?
BFM Bourse has selected stocks also using the opinions of a few managers. While you’re sure to know most of them, others are a little less obvious.
Stora Enso, Santa’s value
“When you think of Santa as a company, Stora Enso immediately comes to mind. Like Santa, she is Finnish and she makes wood in Northern Europe. This company specializes in pulp and its derivatives. It is Santa’s company.”, says first of all Nicolas Descoqs, CFO at Clartan Associés
The financial intermediary adds that this company has a forest park that “in terms of area corresponds to half of Switzerland”. And a turnover of more than 10 billion euros achieved last year…
“Investing in the values that would be attached to a company led by Santa Claus refers to the concept of pleasure and leisure, of course all in goods and services for the family”, emphasizes Frédéric Rozier, manager of Mirabaud France.
“We can think of titles like Nintendo, Walt Disney or even Netflix. But also confectionery and chocolate like Nestlé or Lindt,” he says.
Champagne, video games and…dolipran
In addition to sweets, “We can think of groups that specialize in champagne to consume or offer! With LVMH, Laurent Perrier, Vranken Pommery and Lanson-BCC (which owns the brands Champagne Chanoine Frères and Champagne Lanson)”, suggests Thierry Gautier, from GSD management.
“In the ‘hood’ of values that could be part of ‘Santa’s company’ there could be groups listed in video games such as Electronic Arts or Nintendo. Ubisoft should be taken with more caution considering the “recent operation of the Guillemot family on its personal possession”, Thierry Gautier also suggests.
The manager also mentions two companies that many French people have asked for their gifts, namely Amazon and Fnac Darty, which “are essential to get your shopping delivered or picked up”. To leave well-known names behind for a bit, let’s also mention in the same sector the German Ceconomy, which specializes in consumer electronics and non-food distribution, via the brands Media Markt and Saturn.
Still in this selection, the executives interviewed also suggest adding some music, with Universal Music Group launched on the Amsterdam stock exchange last year by its former parent company Vivendi, which still owns 10% of the capital. Remember that Swedish Spotify is also listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Of course, let’s not forget toy specialists Hasbro, famous for Monopoly and Scrabble, and Mattel, known for Barbie dolls, both present on the Nasdaq. The Danish Lego is not listed on the stock exchange and is owned by the founding Kristiansen family.
“For good New Year’s resolutions, Basic Fit is a good choice”, points out Thierry Gautier. This Dutch fitness franchise is listed on the stock exchange in Amsterdam and in 2019 generated more than 500 million euros in revenue.
“For winter leisure we can think of the Compagnie des Alpes”, suggests Nicolas Descoqs. Can we add Coca-Cola, a company known for fixing Santa photos? “Why not? Santa Claus is them historically,” replies the manager.
On the other hand, we have chosen to exclude FDJ from our selection, because we find it difficult to imagine Santa Claus with an activity that largely excludes children (in some cases they have the right to participate in the lottery according to service-public). fri).
Last suggestion from Thierry Gautier: “why not add Sanofi and its Doliprane to reduce binges after New Year’s Eve?”.
BFM Bourse thus wishes you a good Christmas Eve, but in moderation.
A “Santa Claus index” in sharp decline over a year
For fun, we have built a “Santa Claus Index” or rather a portfolio, assuming that an investor had invested around 1,000 euros in each stock mentioned in this article (except Sanofi, Vivendi and Ubisoft).
We achieve a remarkable performance over 10 years with a portfolio whose value has been multiplied by 4.3. On the other hand, the portfolio fell more than 30% over the year, weighed down by the plunge in tech stocks like Netflix, Amazon, Spotify and Nintendo.
Note on methodology: For the variation over 10 years, we have removed Ceconomy, Spotify, Fnac Darty, Basic Fit and Universal Music, which were not on the list in 2012. We have integrated them over a year assuming an initial investment of 1,000 euros in each security, on December 24, 2021.
We have taken as reference December 2012, December 24, 2021 and December 20, 2022 to make our comparisons, whether for corporate rates, but also for dollar/euro, Swiss franc/euro and yen/euro.
Julien Marion – ©2022 BFM Bourse